MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Maria Eugenia Garcia
DTN Energy Editor
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Aug 12th:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Group 3 CBOB Basis Up 10cts as PADD 2 Gasoline Draws
-- EIA: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Hits 23-Year Low
-- EIA: PADD 3 Crude Stocks Post Biggest Build Since 2023
-- EIA: PADD 1 Distillate Stocks Fall; Gasoline Rises
-- EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Down on Week; Distillates, Crude Up
-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Inventories Increase 18.5% Y-o-Y
-- EIA: Ethanol Inventories Climb 2.2% Year-over-Year
-- EIA: Crude Stocks Surge 17.4M Bbl; Gasoline Falls
-- EIA: US Natural Gas Output on Track for 2026 Record
-- OPEC Trims Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Straight Month
NEWS
Group 3 CBOB Basis Up 10cts as PADD 2 Gasoline Draws
SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Midwest CBOB cash basis differentials diverged
Wednesday (8/12), as persistent PADD 2 gasoline inventory draws supported Group
3 bids while Chicago values continued to soften.
Chicago CBOB basis was unchanged against the same benchmark, remaining at
the prior session's Merc level.
In key Midwest pipelines, CBOB at both the Buckeye Complex and Wolverine
were heard trading at a premium of 5cts against the NYMEX benchmark. The
differential for Buckeye strengthened by 7cts while the basis for Wolverine
rose by 3cts.
The premium was even bigger in Group 3 CBOB, where differentials were heard
strengthening 6.5cts on the day to trade at 10cts above September RBOB futures.
A Midwest trader noted erratic swings throughout the session in the V-grade
gasoline product that makes up Group 3 CBOB.
"V grade was a wild, wild ride today," the trader told DTN. "The basis
started off at 5.25cts, then went to 10cts, and after that 9cts, 8.5cts and
something in the 4-handles, before trading in the window at 10cts or above."
The physical cash market divergence unfolded alongside fresh inventory data
from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing Midwest motor gasoline
stocks drew by 400,000 bbl during the week ended Aug. 7 to stand at 43 million
bbl.
The drawdown leaves PADD 2 gasoline stockpiles 4 million bbl below year-ago
levels, even as regional refinery utilization edged up 0.4 percentage points to
98.6% with refiner crude runs rising to 4.210 million bpd.
In futures trade, NYMEX RBOB for September gained $0.0171, or 0.5%, to
finish at $3.1537 gallon, while September WTI crude rose $0.07, or 0.1%, to
settle at $83.27 bbl.
Despite daily futures fluctuation, physical cash trading across PADD 2
channels remains closely tethered to operational bottlenecks at major refining
and transit hubs.
Secondary unit disruptions at Phillips 66's 356,000 bpd Wood River refinery
in Roxana, Illinois, continue to trim prompt finished gasoline output, forcing
mid-continent distributors into spot channels for replacement barrels.
Logistics friction at the Lamar terminal pipeline hub near the
Colorado-Kansas border also continues to constrain northbound product velocity
into mid-continent distribution networks.
As a critical crossover node connecting Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain supply
lines with PADD 2, throughput limits at Lamar have kept regional basis
differentials volatile as physical traders defend declining stock levels.
EIA: U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Hits 23-Year Low
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell 6.1 million bbl , or 2%,
week-over-week to 298.7 million bbl for the week ending August 7, according to
the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status
Report released Wednesday (8/12).
This was the lowest level since January 28,1983, when it was at 298.4
million bbl, EIA data showed.
Year-over-year, the SPR dropped 104.5 million bbl, or nearly 26%, from 403.2
million bbl, highlighting the scale of ongoing government drawdowns aimed at
mitigating crude oil and refined products shortage resulting from the Middle
East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Total U.S. crude oil stocks, including both commercial inventories and the
SPR, stood at 723.1 million bbl, up 11.3 million bbl week-over-week. Commercial
crude stocks, excluding the SPR, rose 17.4 million bbl to 424.4 million bbl in
the same period.
EIA: PADD 3 Crude Stocks Post Biggest Build Since 2023
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) crude oil inventories posted their largest weekly
increase since January 2023 during the week ended August 7, while gasoline and
jet fuel stocks declined and distillate fuel inventories increased, according
to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report
released Wednesday (8/12).
Crude oil inventories in PADD 3 increased by 14.6 million bbl to 245.2
million bbl during the reference week, the largest weekly build since the week
ended January 6, 2023, when stocks increased by 15.55 million bbl. Inventories
remained 3.2 million bbl below the 248.4 million bbl reported during the same
week last year. Crude oil imports into the Gulf Coast averaged 1.879 million
bpd, up from 1.081 million bpd the previous week and above the 1.267 million
bpd reported during the comparable week last year.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 3 region fell by 1.2 million bbl to
77.3 million bbl during the reference week, reversing two consecutive weekly
increases. Inventories remained 8.3 million bbl below the 85.6 million bbl
reported during the same week last year. Gasoline imports into the Gulf Coast
averaged 58,000 bpd, little changed from 59,000 bpd the previous week but above
the 26,000 bpd reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Distillate fuel oil inventories, the feedstock for diesel, increased by
500,000 bbl to 41 million bbl during the profiled week but remained 3.3 million
bbl below the 44.3 million bbl reported during the same week last year. As a
net exporter of distillate fuel, PADD 3 reported no distillate imports during
the reporting week.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 500,000 bbl to 15.1 million bbl during the
reference week but remained 1.5 million bbl above the 13.6 million bbl reported
during the same week last year. The Gulf Coast reported no jet fuel imports
during the reporting week.
Refinery utilization on the Gulf Coast increased to 97.9% of operable
capacity from 97.3% the previous week, while crude oil inputs into refineries
averaged 9.588 million bpd, up from 9.484 million bpd the week before, EIA data
showed.
EIA: PADD 1 Distillate Stocks Fall; Gasoline Rises
U.S. East Coast (PADD 1) distillate fuel oil and jet fuel inventories
declined during the week ended August 7, while gasoline and crude oil stocks
increased, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Weekly
Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday (8/12).
Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 1 increased by 400,000 bbl to 52.6
million bbl during the reference week but remained 2.8 million bbl below the
55.4 million bbl recorded during the same week last year. Gasoline imports into
the region increased to 458,000 bpd from 377,000 bpd the previous week but
remained below the 534,000 bpd reported during the same week last year.
Distillate inventories on the East Coast, the primary storage region for
heating oil and diesel, fell by 1.3 million bbl to 23.9 million bbl during the
profiled week. Inventories were 3.5 million bbl below the 27.4 million bbl
reported during the same week last year. East Coast distillate imports declined
to 66,000 bpd from 79,000 bpd the previous week and were below the 74,000 bpd
imported during the comparable week of 2025.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 600,000 bbl to 11 million bbl but remained
500,000 bbl above the 10.5 million bbl reported during the comparable week in
2025. East Coast jet fuel imports were unchanged at 13,000 bpd from the
previous week, compared with zero imports reported a year earlier.
Crude oil inventories on the East Coast increased by 300,000 bbl to 7.9
million bbl during the week profiled but remained 700,000 bbl below the 8.6
million bbl reported during the same week last year. Crude imports into the
region averaged 515,000 bpd, up from 422,000 bpd the previous week but below
the 593,000 bpd reported during the same week in 2025.
Refinery utilization on the East Coast edged down to 83.7% of operable
capacity from 84% the previous week, while crude oil inputs increased by 12,000
bpd to 775,000 bpd, EIA data showed.
EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Down on Week; Distillates, Crude Up
Midwest gasoline inventories decreased during the week ended August 7, while
distillate and crude oil stockpiles built, the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (8/12). Regional jet fuel inventories
remained unchanged on the week.
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 2 region drew by 400,000 bbl during
the referenced week to stand at 43 million bbl, according to the EIA.
Year-on-year, Midwest gasoline stocks fell by 4 million bbl from the 47 million
bbl recorded during the corresponding week of 2025.
Weekly imports of gasoline into the Midwest rose by 11,000 bpd on the week
to average 24,000 bpd during the current reporting period. This inbound volume
was up by 8,000 bpd from the year-ago level of 16,000 bpd recorded during the
same week last year.
PADD 2 distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 600,000 bbl on the week to
28.6 million bbl. That weekly build placed regional distillate inventories 1.4
million bbl higher than the 27.2 million bbl logged during the corresponding
week last year.
Distillate imports into the Midwest averaged 4,000 bpd, up 1,000 bpd on the
week but down by 16,000 bpd from the year-ago volume of 20,000 bpd.
Jet fuel stocks were unchanged from the prior week at 7.7 million bbl,
standing 200,000 bbl above the previous year's level of 7.5 million bbl.
Crude oil inventories increased by 2.3 million bbl on the week to 101.9
million bbl, which is 500,000 bbl lower than last year's level of 102.4 million
bbl.
Crude imports into the PADD 2 region increased by 90,000 bpd on the week to
average 3,136,000 bpd, according to latest EIA data. This inbound crude oil
volume was 125,000 bpd higher than the 3,011,000 bpd reported by the agency
during the corresponding week last year.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest stood at 4.210 million bpd last week,
versus 4.192 million the week prior and 4.292 million a year ago. The regional
utilization rate rose to 98.6% versus the prior week's 98.2% and remained below
the year-ago level of 101.2%.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Inventories Increase 18.5% Y-o-Y
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (8/12) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 104.974 million bbl in the week ending
August 7, up 1.871 million bbl week-on-week and 16.362 million bbl, or 18.5%
higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.982 million bpd, up
61,000 bpd week-on-week and 318,000 bpd, or 19.1%, higher than in the same week
last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 747,000 bpd,
down 162,000 bpd week-on-week and 30,000 bpd, or 4.2% higher than in the same
week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.895 million bpd,
up 11,000 bpd week-on-week and 46,000 bpd, or 1.6% higher than in the same week
last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 8.106 million bbl, up 1.19
million bbl week-on-week and 578,000 bbl, or 7.7% higher than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 25.006 million bbl, up 373,000 bbl
week-on-week and 1.835 million bbl, or 7.9% higher than in the same week last
year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 66.943 million bbl, up 251,000
bbl week-on-week and 13.64 million bbl, or 25.6% higher than in the same week
last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the
week at 4.918 million bbl, up 56,000 bbl week-on-week and 309,000 bbl, or 6.7%
higher than in the same week last year.
EIA: Ethanol Inventories Climb 2.2% Year-over-Year
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (8/12) that
overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.117 million bpd in
the week ending August 7, up 10,000 bpd week-on-week and 24,000 bpd, or 2.2%
higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.127
million bpd was 23,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.06 million bpd, up 13,000 bpd
week-on-week and 28,000 bpd, or 2.7% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 1.07 million bpd was 24,000 bpd above the same four
weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 915,000 bpd, down 21,000 bpd
week-on-week and 14,000 bpd, or 1.6% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blending demand at 853,000 bpd was 6,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year.
Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 16,000 bpd on the week while inputs
in the Midwest were down 1,000 bpd, down 9,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and up
4,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 24.798 million bbl, up 274,000
bbl week-on-week and 870,000 bbl, or 3.6% higher than in the same week last
year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.27 million bbl, up 294,000
bbl week-on-week and 812,000 bbl, or 12.6% higher than in the same week last
year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.727 million bbl, up 318,000 bbl
week-on-week and 300,000 bbl, or 3% lower than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 5.081 million bbl, down 157,000
bbl week-on-week and 71,000 bbl, or 1.4% higher than in the same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.387 million bbl, down 175,000
bbl week-on-week and 281,000 bbl, or 13.3% higher than in the same week last
year.
EIA: Crude Stocks Surge 17.4M Bbl; Gasoline Falls
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories surged during the week ended August 7,
according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (8/12),
while gasoline inventories fell for a second consecutive week. Distillate fuel
inventories were virtually unchanged, while jet fuel inventories declined.
Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 17.4 million bbl to 424.4
million bbl during the profiled week, the largest weekly increase since the
week ended April 10, 2020, when inventories rose by 19.2 million bbl.
Inventories remained 2.3 million bbl, or 0.5%, below the same week last year.
Crude oil imports averaged 7.339 million bpd in the profiled week, up by 1.141
million bpd from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude imports
averaged 6.257 million bpd, essentially unchanged from the same period last
year. Crude oil exports averaged 3.058 million bpd last week, down from 3.685
million bpd the previous week and below the 3.577 million bpd reported during
the comparable week last year.
Total motor gasoline inventories fell by 1 million bbl to 208.7 million bbl
during the week profiled, the second consecutive weekly decline and the lowest
level since the week ended November 14, 2025, when stocks stood at 207.4
million bbl. Gasoline inventories were 17.6 million bbl, or 7.8%, below the
same week last year. Gasoline imports averaged 583,000 bpd compared with
463,000 bpd the previous week and 632,000 bpd a year earlier. Gasoline exports
averaged 852,000 bpd versus 807,000 bpd the previous week and 825,000 bpd
during the comparable week last year.
Distillate fuel inventories were virtually unchanged at 107.1 million bbl
during the reference week and remained 6.5 million bbl, or 5.7%, below the same
week last year. Distillate imports averaged 111,000 bpd compared with 99,000
bpd the previous week and 107,000 bpd a year earlier. Distillate exports
averaged 1.935 million bpd versus 1.884 million bpd the previous week and 1.441
million bpd during the comparable week last year.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 1.7 million bbl to 45.2 million bbl last week
but remained 1.4 million bbl, or 3.3%, above the same week last year. Jet fuel
imports averaged 133,000 bpd compared with 15,000 bpd the previous week and
28,000 bpd a year earlier. Jet fuel exports averaged 443,000 bpd versus 445,000
bpd the previous week and 255,000 bpd during the comparable week last year.
Refinery utilization edged down to 96.2% of operable capacity last week from
96.5% the previous week. Crude oil inputs into refineries averaged 17.179
million bpd, up by 26,000 bpd from the previous week's 17.153 million bpd, EIA
data showed.
EIA: US Natural Gas Output on Track for 2026 Record
U.S. marketed natural gas production is on track to reach a record in 2026,
driven by increased output from the Permian and Haynesville regions, the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) said Wednesday (8/12).
EIA forecasts marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion
cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year, surpassing the previous record of 118.5
Bcf/d set in 2025. Production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d during the first half of
2026, up 4%, or 4.6 Bcf/d, from the same period in 2025.
Permian natural gas production is forecast to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up
6% from 2025, supported by oil-directed drilling and rising associated gas
production. WTI crude averaged $84 bbl through July, compared with $65 bbl in
2025.
In the Haynesville, production is forecast to increase 9%, or 1.3 Bcf/d,
this year. EIA said drilling remains economical at its forecast Henry Hub spot
price of $3.44 MMBtu, while the region also benefits from its proximity to LNG
export terminals and industrial consumers along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
OPEC Trims Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Straight Month
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries anticipates that world oil
demand will reach 580,000 bpd in 2026, down from 780,000 bpd previously
reported, according to its monthly report for August released Wednesday (8/12).
This is the fourth consecutive month OPEC trimmed its estimate of global oil
demand, due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran war.
OPEC's forecasts global production growth of 600,000 bpd in 2026, bringing
average production to 54.8 million bpd. This forecast was unchanged from the
July report.
Combined crude oil production by the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC)
participants -- consisting of 12 OPEC members and 10 allies, also known as
OPEC+ -- is forecast to grow by about 600,000 bpd in 2026, unchanged from last
month's assessment. The growth is supported by expectations of increasing
liquids production from Brazil, the U.S., Canada and Argentina.
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