Oil Steadies as Traders Assess Higher Flows, Export Bans


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- Oil and product futures were mixed in a volatile morning 
session Thursday (10/1), with crude benchmarks advancing 1.5-2%, while ULSD's 
new front-month contract slipped following yesterday's rally.

   By 09:00am ET, ICE Brent for December delivery was up $1.77 to trade near 
$99.80 bbl, and NYMEX WTI for November delivery rose $0.67 to $91.09 bbl.

   Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery retreated $0.1234 to $4.5647 
gallon, while front-month RBOB futures edged higher $0.0088 to $3.2693 gallon.

   The US dollar index strengthened by 0.365 points to 101.555 against a basket 
of foreign currencies, having reached a 10-month high 101.755 earlier in the 
session.

   A tightening global fuels market has been supporting the oil complex, 
outweighing resurging crude exports from the Middle East. To secure domestic 
supply and combat surging prices, more and more countries have been 
implementing, extending or at least considering refined product export bans, 
which added to fuel supply woes. Russia has recently extended its existing 
diesel export ban until the end of October, and reports on Thursday suggested 
that China had suspended all fuel exports for at least the first week of this 
month.

   The U.S. administration has also been floating the possibility of a 
temporary ban on diesel exports, downplaying industry warnings about the 
cascading effects on supply and availability of other refined fuels. On 
Thursday, Reuters reported that the Trump administration urged European Union 
countries to release their emergency diesel stocks or face a U.S. export ban. 

   In May 2025, the last month for which Eurostat has provided a detailed 
breakdown of emergency oil and product reserves, the EU sat on around 280 
million bbl of strategic diesel reserves, with more than a third of volumes 
situated in Germany and France. Data from September 2026 showed that total 
strategic reserves were still high, as European countries have generally been 
slow to fulfill their IEA commitment.

   Diesel inventories in the U.S., meanwhile, have fallen to their lowest 
seasonal level on record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on 
Wednesday reported that nationwide stockpiles of distillate fuel oil dropped to 
105.2 million bbl last week, down nearly 15% year-on-year. On the East Coast, 
diesel and heating oil reserves are lagging year-ago levels by close to 29%.

    

    




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