EIA: Revises Henry Hub Spot Price Up 10% From Nov. STEO


   
Kristina Davis
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   MIAMI, FL (DTN) -- The Energy Information Administration has raised its 
natural gas price outlook on expectations that colder early-winter weather and 
stronger heating demand will lift U.S. benchmark prices, the agency's 
Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (12/9) showed. 

   The Henry Hub spot price, which averaged about $2.19/MMBtu in 2024, is 
forecast to average almost $4.30/MMBtu this winter (November--March), up 10%, 
or more than 40 cents, above the November STEO estimate. The upward revision 
reflects colder-than-expected December temperatures that increased natural gas 
consumption for space heating, the latest STEO report indicated. 

   U.S. natural gas storage entered winter 4% above the prior five-year 
average, supported by high production levels and relatively modest early-season 
withdrawals. By the end of March 2026, inventories are expected to stand around 
2,000 Bcf, or 9% above the five-year average. 

   "Colder weather at the start of winter increased residential and commercial 
consumption, prompting larger-than-average withdrawals in December," the latest 
STEO report noted. "Although we expect milder weather in early 2026, elevated 
heating demand in December raises our winter price forecast." 

   The EIA projected that the Henry Hub price will average about $4/MMBtu in 
2026, easing from winter highs as production rises. U.S. dry natural gas output 
is forecast to average 109 Bcfd next year, up 1% from 2025, with higher 
production tied to strengthened natural gas-to-oil ratios in the Permian Basin. 

   U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to reach 117--118 Bcfd in 
2025--26, while LNG exports climb, keeping the United States positioned as the 
world's top supplier.

   The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to rise from 12 Bcfd in 2024 to 16 Bcfd by 
2026, supported by new liquefaction capacity coming online




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