Recovery in US Jet Fuel Demand Requires "Marathon" Outlook


   
   OAKHURST, N.J. (DTN) --- After showing signs of strength during the 
Thanksgiving and year-end holidays, the recovery in jet fuel demand in the 
United States will continue to face turbulence amid ongoing COVID-19 mitigation 
efforts.

   Transportation Security Administration data show the number of passengers 
traveling through domestic checkpoints has fallen off since reaching a pandemic 
high 1,327,289 on Jan. 3. While seesawing, the number of travelers passing 
through TSA checkpoints have dropped by more than half to 520,117 as of Tuesday 
(1/12), marking the lowest number of air travelers in over a month yet still 
more than five times above the pandemic low of 87,534 on April 14, 2020.

   Capturing some of this year end holiday demand, Energy Information 
Administration data show implied demand for jet fuel gained for the fourth time 
in five weeks as of Jan. 8, surging 60% to a better than nine-month high 1.468 
million bpd. Four-week average demand for the period ended Jan. 8 totaled 1.199 
million bpd versus 1.120 million bpd the four weeks prior yet below the 
four-week period ended Dec. 25, 2020.

   The global outlook also faces headwinds, impacted by government response to 
new outbreaks "with even more travel restrictions and quarantine measures," 
International Air Transport Association's Alexandre de Juniac said recently.

   EIA on Tuesday in its latest Short-term Energy Outlook reiterated there was 
a sharp drop in global jet fuel consumption in 2020 due to COVID-19 while 
saying demand is likely to remain below its 2019 level through the end of 2022.

   "EIA expects jet fuel consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels more 
quickly in China and the United States than in most other regions," the agency 
said.

   The International Energy Agency previously revised down its oil demand 
forecast for 2021 due to "another downgrade for jet fuel/kerosene demand, which 
will account for around 80% of the overall 3.1 mb/d shortfall in consumption in 
2021 versus 2019."

   Globally, IEA said weakness in the aviation sector largely explained a 
300,000 bpd demand downgrade in expected demand for the first half of 2021.

    

    

   Dawn Gallagher, 1.732.531.4451, dawn.gallagher@dtn.com, www.dtn.com.




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