MARKETWIRE ALERTS
Barani Krishnan
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter
MARKETWIRE ALERTS
MarketWire Afternoon News Sept 30:
Updated at 5:00 PM ET
HEADLINES:
-- Midwest CBOB Jumps as PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks at Record Low
-- Group 3 Jet Basis Up 54cts as Distillate Stocks Tumble
-- Dallas Fed: Oil Executives See WTI at $88 in 2026
-- Dallas Fed Survey: ULSD/WTI Spread High until 2027
-- October NYMEX RBOB Up Over 3% as Gasoline Stocks Tumble
-- BTS: Flammable Liquid Rail Cars Hits 76% in 2025
-- Analysis: East Coast Fuel Stocks Reel from Import Dearth
-- EIA: PADD 5 Jet Stocks Drop 900,000 bbl, Most in 14 Mos
-- EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit Record Low as Runs Drop
-- EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Fall 800,000 bbl
-- EIA: PADD 1 Jet Stocks Drop 1.2M bbl, Most in 11 Months
-- EIA: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Dip, Blending Ticks Higher
-- EIA: Gasoline Stocks Fall to Nearly 12-Year Low
-- EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Climb, Up 6.3% on Year
-- EIA: EV Power Demand Growth Cools With Tax Credit Expiry
-- Georgia Suspends Motor Fuel Tax Through October 29
-- California Allows Early Switch to Winter Gasoline
-- BEA Shows U.S GDP Rises 2.2%, USD Weakens
-- Diesel Racks Reclaim $5 Pricing; Gasoline Slide Deepens
NEWS
Midwest CBOB Jumps as PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks at Record Low
Group 3 CBOB basis jumped 17.5cts as Midwest gasoline spot markets surged
Wednesday (9/30) in response to data showing record low inventories for
gasoline in the PADD 2 region.
Group 3 CBOB traded at a 5.5cts gallon premium to the expiring October NYMEX
RBOB contract, reversing from Tuesday's 12cts gallon discount.
In eastern pipeline markets, CBOB basis shifted into positive territory as
well. Buckeye Complex CBOB and Wolverine CBOB basis both rose 7cts on the day
to stand at a 3cts gallon premium to October futures, reversing from Tuesday's
4cts gallon discount.
Chicago CBOB basis edged higher, narrowing its discount by 0.50ct to settle
at a 6.5cts gallon discount to the front-month contract.
NYMEX October RBOB futures rose $0.1596, or 4.87%, to settle at $3.4378
gallon on expiration day.
Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week
ended September 25 showed PADD 2 motor gasoline stocks fell by 1.8 million bbl
to 41.8 million bbl, the lowest level since record-keeping began in December
1989.
Midwest crude runs fell by 157,000 bpd on the week to average 3.645 million
bpd, while regional refinery utilization fell 3.4 percentage points to 85.6%
Group 3 Jet Basis Up 54cts as Distillate Stocks Tumble
Group 3 jet fuel spot basis led Midwest distillate markets higher Wednesday
(9/30), jumping 54cts as regional inventories fell to their lowest level since
early June.
Group 3 jet fuel basis reversed Tuesday's 44cts gallon discount to trade at
a 10cts gallon premium to the expiring October NYMEX ULSD contract. In Chicago,
jet fuel basis narrowed its discount by 5cts to 35cts gallon. ULSD for the same
region also strengthened sharply, rising 30cts to a 15cts gallon premium to
October futures after trading at a 15cts discount Tuesday.
Elsewhere, ULSD basis changes were limited. Chicago basis rose 2cts to a
7cts gallon premium, while Buckeye Complex and Wolverine ULSD basis each
slipped 1ct to 7cts gallon premiums.
NYMEX October ULSD futures climbed $0.0590, or 1.20%, to settle at $4.9569
gallon on expiration day after reaching an intraday high of $5.4275 gallon.
Energy Information Administration data showed PADD 2 distillate fuel oil
stocks fell 1.3 million bbl to 25.9 million bbl during the week ended September
25, the lowest level since early June.
PADD 2 refinery utilization fell 3.4 percentage points to 85.6%, while crude
runs declined by 157,000 bpd to 3.645 million bpd.
Dallas Fed: Oil Executives See WTI at $88 in 2026
Executives responding to the September Dallas Fed Energy Survey on average
expected West Texas Intermediate crude oil to reach $88 bbl at the end of 2026,
with estimates ranging from $70 to $126 bbl.
For longer-term expectations, respondents put the average WTI price at $79
bbl two years from now and $82 bbll five years from now, according to the
survey released Wednesday (9/30).
Respondents expected Henry Hub natural gas to reach an average of $3.29 per
million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the end of 2026. They projected prices
of $3.82 per MMBtu two years from now and $4.28 per MMBtu five years from now.
WTI spot prices averaged $98.70 bbl during the survey collection period,
while Henry Hub spot prices averaged $2.97 per MMBtu.
Outlooks diverged between exploration and production companies and oilfield
services firms. The outlook index for E&P companies was 50.0, compared with 4.6
for services firms. The overall outlook uncertainty index was 29.8, little
changed from the previous quarter, although uncertainty was considerably higher
among E&P firms, at 40.2, than among services firms, at 9.5.
Executives cited several factors weighing on their outlook, including global
oil supply, uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production cuts, and changes in trade
policy and tariffs.
"We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on
commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and
also 2027 will potentially look like," one executive said.
Another executive raised concerns about fuel domestic prices: "I don't quite
understand why the price is high at the pump. The U.S. has plenty of supply."
E&P executives reported increases in both oil and natural gas production.
The oil production index rose from 15.0 in the second quarter to 20.7 in the
third, while the natural gas production index increased from 3.7 to 14.8.
Dallas Fed Survey: ULSD/WTI Spread High until 2027
Nearly half of oil and gas executives surveyed in September by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas expected diesel prices to remain elevated relative to
crude oil for more than a year, according to third-quarter results released
Wednesday (9/30).
The Dallas Fed survey found that 48% of respondents expected the
diesel-crude oil price spread to return to 2025 levels within four quarters,
while 36% expected the gasoline spread to take longer than four quarters.
The results come as refined-product prices have remained elevated relative
to crude oil in 2026. Respondents were surveyed September 16-24, when West
Texas Intermediate crude averaged $98.70 bbl. The Dallas Fed surveyed 125 oil
and gas firms, including 83 exploration and production companies and 42
oilfield services firms.
About 28% of respondents expected Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war
levels by the second quarter of 2027, while 21% did not expect a return until
2028 or later and 19% selected the first quarter of 2027.
The broader survey showed oil and gas activity continued expanding during
the third quarter of this year, although at a slower pace. The business
activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1 in the second quarter, while the oil
production index increased to 20.7 from 15.0 and the natural gas production
index rose to 14.8 from 3.7.
October NYMEX RBOB Up Over 3% as Gasoline Stocks Tumble
The NYMEX RBOB futures contract for October delivery rallied over 3% on
Wednesday (9/30) after federal data showed U.S. gasoline stocks tumbled to a
nearly 12-year low, driven by sharp inventory draws that included a record low
in the Midwest.
By 11:20 a.m. ET, October NYMEX RBOB futures contract rose $0.1065, or
3.25%, to $3.3847 gallon ahead of its expiry at the close of Wednesday's
session. Its high for the day was $3.3887.
November RBOB, the new front-month from Thursday (10/1), was up $0.1376, or
4.42%, at $3.2699 after an intraday peak at $3.2765.
Motor gasoline inventories fell for second consecutive week by 1.7 million
bbl to 204.4 million bbl during the week ended September 25, their lowest level
since November 7, 2014, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA)
data released Wednesday.
The stockpile drop was even more pronounced in the Midwest, where gasoline
balances reached all-time lows. Motor gasoline stock in the PADD 2 region drew
by 1.8 million bbl during the week ended September 25 to 41.8 million bbl, the
EIA said. That placed regional gasoline supplies at their lowest level since
EIA record-keeping began in December 1989.
BTS: Flammable Liquid Rail Cars Hits 76% in 2025
The share of U.S. compliant rail tank cars for Class 3 flammable liquids
rose to 76% in 2025 from 73% in 2024, federal transportation data showed
Wednesday (9/30).
A total of 76,715 DOT-117 and DOT-117R tank cars moved flammable liquids
last year, following May 1, 2025 phaseout deadlines for compliance, according
to the data issued by Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).
Almost all crude oil and ethanol shipments were moved in DOT-117 or
retrofitted DOT-117R cars, including 8,758 carrying crude and 37,032 moving
ethanol during 2025, the BTS noted.
The May deadline prohibited jacketed CPC-1232 tank cars from carrying crude
oil or ethanol, while banning older DOT-111 and CPC-1232 models from hauling
packing group I liquids.
The total fleet transporting Class 3 flammable liquids dipped 0.6% in 2025
to 100,485 rail tank cars, compared to 2016 when DOT-117s made up just 8%.
For 2026, survey projections indicate shops will build 2,137 new DOT-117
cars and retrofit 663 DOT-117R units, adding 2,800 compliant tank cars to the
fleet.
All remaining non-DOT-117 tank cars moving packing group II and III
flammable liquids face a final phaseout deadline of May 1, 2029 under FAST Act
regulations, BTS added.
Analysis: East Coast Fuel Stocks Reel from Import Dearth
The ongoing global refined fuels supply crunch has left its mark on domestic
inventories, which continue to hover near seasonal decade lows. In some regions
of the U.S., fuel stockpile depletion has been much more pronounced than in
others, revealing structural vulnerabilities stemming from limited refining and
transportation capacity to an outsized import dependence, all while facing
increased competition from international buyers willing to pay large premiums
to secure a cargo of U.S. made fuel.
Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday (9/30) showed
nationwide gasoline stocks falling to a nearly 12-year low last week, trailing
year-ago levels by 7.5%. Distillate fuel oil inventories also posted a decline,
down 14.9% year-on-year. In the country's main refining hub on the Gulf Coast,
where fuels production outpaces demand, diesel inventories have over the past
month risen back in line with normal seasonal levels, closing a nearly 10%-gap
to long time averages. For East Coast inventories, in contrast, this gap
continued to widen.
Distillate fuel oil stocks in PADD 1 typically grow between mid-May and the
end of August, the period when refiners run their hardest while demand is at a
seasonal low. This pattern was completely absent this year, with inventories
sliding continuously throughout the summer months. Despite a few weeks of
builds, regional stockpiles of diesel and heating oil have barely recovered
from the record lows reached at the end of August, when they plummeted below 20
million bbl. At 21.9 million bbl, they are currently 31% below the seasonal
five-year average and 28.7% smaller than in the same week last year.
East Coast gasoline inventories, which in contrast to diesel were still
plentiful at the start of the year, have since March recorded a much higher
draw pace than is typical, resulting in seasonal record lows and a widening gap
to long-term averages. This coincided with a prolonged dearth in imports, which
have since then consistently run some 200,000 bpd below typical levels, or
30-40% depending on the time of year. As of Friday, regional motor gasoline
stocks amounted to less than 51 million bbl, down 9.2% year-on-year and 11.7%
below the five-year average.
The waiving of the Jones Act, which in theory would render shipments from
the Gulf to the East Coast economically feasible, has so far brought little
relief to inventories. The combination of peak seasonal domestic demand and
high international buying interest, together with a backwardated market
structure, have provided strong incentives to move inventory fast and keep
stockpiles just well filled enough to guarantee smooth operations.
A diesel export ban is equally unlikely to change the situation for the
better. High prices are not home-made as the U.S. is sitting on a comfortable
diesel surplus, and a ban on exports would force refiners to slash runs,
leading to less supply of gasoline and other fuels.
EIA: PADD 5 Jet Stocks Drop 900,000 bbl, Most in 14 Mos
U.S. West Coast (PADD 5) jet fuel inventories fell by 900,000 bbl during the
week ended September 25, the largest weekly decline in 14 months, while
distillate and crude oil stocks also fell and gasoline supplies increased,
according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/30).
Jet fuel inventories dropped to 10.7 million bbl from 11.6 million bbl the
previous week. The draw was the largest since the week ended July 25, 2025,
when PADD 5 jet fuel stocks fell by 915,000 bbl.
Distillate fuel inventories edged down by 100,000 bbl to 10.2 million bbl
from 10.3 million bbl the previous week. Supplies were 2.7 million bbl below
the 12.9 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Distillate
imports increased to 21,000 bpd from 1,000 bpd.
Gasoline inventories increased by 700,000 bbl to 28 million bbl from 27.3
million bbl the previous week, extending their recovery from the 2026 low
reached earlier in September. Stocks remained 2.3 million bbl below the 30.3
million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Gasoline imports fell
to 73,000 bpd from 104,000 bpd.
Crude oil inventories fell by 2.4 million bbl to 44.2 million bbl from 46.6
million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 2.6 million bbl below the 46.8
million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Crude imports declined
to 659,000 bpd from 1.116 million bpd.
PADD 5 refinery utilization edged down to 93.4% of operable capacity from
94.5% the previous week, while crude oil inputs fell to 2.022 million bpd from
2.058 million bpd.
EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Hit Record Low as Runs Drop
Midwest gasoline inventories fell to a record low during the week ended
September 25 while regional distillate stocks dropped to a near four-month
bottom as refinery crude utilization across PADD 2 continued to slow, the
Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (9/30).
Motor gasoline inventories in the PADD 2 region drew by 1.8 million bbl
during the week ended September 25 to 41.8 million bbl, according to the EIA's
Weekly Petroleum Status Report. That placed regional gasoline supplies at their
lowest level since EIA record-keeping began in December 1989.
Year-on-year, regional gasoline stocks were lower by 5.7 million bbl
compared to the 47.5 million bbl seen in the corresponding week of 2025.
PADD 2 crude imports increased by 295,000 bpd on the week to average
2,732,000 bpd, according to latest EIA data. This inbound crude oil volume was
275,000 bpd lower than the 3,007,000 bpd reported by the agency during the
corresponding week last year.
The regional utilization rate dropped 3.4 percentage points to 85.6% versus
the prior week's 89.0%, remaining well below the year-ago level of 94.9%.
Refiner use of crude in the Midwest fell further to 3.645 million bpd last
week, versus 3.802 million bpd the week prior and 4.029 million bpd a year ago.
Weekly imports of gasoline into the Midwest were unchanged on the week to
average 7,000 bpd during the current reporting period. This inbound volume was
down by 9,000 bpd from the year-ago level of 16,000 bpd recorded during the
same week last year.
PADD 2 distillate fuel oil stocks dropped by 1.3 million bbl on the week to
stand at 25.9 million bbl. The draw placed regional distillate inventories at
their lowest level since the week ended June 5, when stocks stood at 25.264
million bbl. Year-on-year, regional distillate inventories were 5.5 million bbl
lower than the 31.4 million bbl logged during the corresponding week last year.
Distillate imports into the Midwest averaged 9,000 bpd, up 6,000 bpd on the
week and up by 1,000 bpd from the year-ago volume of 8,000 bpd.
Jet fuel stocks decreased by 300,000 bbl from the prior week to 7.7 million
bbl, standing 100,000 bbl below the previous year's level of 7.8 million bbl.
Weekly jet fuel imports remained at zero bpd, matching both week-ago and
year-ago levels.
Crude oil inventories rose by 1.0 million bbl on the week to 105.1 million
bbl, which is 3.5 million bbl higher than last year's level of 101.6 million.
EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Stocks Fall 800,000 bbl
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline and distillate fuel inventories declined
during the week ended September 25, while jet fuel stocks increased and crude
oil supplies posted a sizable build as refinery utilization remained high,
according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/30).
Gasoline inventories fell by 800,000 bbl to 76.9 million bbl from 77.7
million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 2.9 million bbl below the 79.8
million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Gasoline imports fell
to 6,000 bpd from 79,000 bpd.
Distillate fuel inventories declined by 500,000 bbl to 43.9 million bbl from
44.4 million bbl the previous week. Supplies were 1 million bbl below the 44.9
million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Distillate imports
fell to 6,000 bpd from 22,000 bpd.
Jet fuel inventories increased by 600,000 bbl to 14.8 million bbl from 14.2
million bbl, extending their recovery from the five-month low reached earlier
in September.
Crude oil inventories increased by 3.4 million bbl to 247.5 million bbl from
244.1 million bbl the previous week. Stocks were 9.2 million bbl above the
238.3 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025. Crude imports
increased to 1.457 million bpd from 1.240 million bpd.
PADD 3 refinery utilization edged down to 95.9% of operable capacity from
96.5% the previous week, while crude oil inputs fell to 9.199 million bpd from
9.496 million bpd.
EIA: PADD 1 Jet Stocks Drop 1.2M bbl, Most in 11 Months
U.S. East Coast (PADD 1) jet fuel inventories fell by 1.2 million bbl during
the week ended September 25, the largest weekly decline in 11 months, while
distillate, gasoline and crude oil stocks also fell as refinery utilization
declined sharply, according to Energy Information Administration data released
Wednesday (9/30).
Jet fuel inventories dropped to 9.7 million bbl from 10.9 million bbl the
previous week. The 1.2 million bbl draw was the largest since the week ended
October 17, 2025, when PADD 1 jet fuel inventories fell by nearly 1.4 million
bbl.
Distillate fuel inventories fell by 300,000 bbl to 21.9 million bbl from
22.2 million bbl, leaving supplies 8.8 million bbl below the 30.7 million bbl
reported during the comparable week of 2025. Stocks remained just 2.6 million
bbl above the record low of 19.3 million bbl reached August 28. Distillate
imports increased to 103,000 bpd from 46,000 bpd the previous week.
Gasoline inventories edged down by 100,000 bbl to 50.9 million bbl from 51
million bbl and were 5.2 million bbl below the 56.1 million bbl reported during
the comparable week of 2025. Gasoline imports nearly doubled to 414,000 bpd
from 210,000 bpd.
Crude oil inventories declined by 400,000 bbl to 8 million bbl from 8.4
million bbl the previous week. Crude imports fell to 379,000 bpd from 671,000
bpd.
PADD 1 refinery utilization dropped to 82.5% of operable capacity from 89.2%
the previous week, while crude oil inputs fell to 756,000 bpd from 834,000 bpd.
EIA: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Dip, Blending Ticks Higher
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (9/30) that
overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.007 million bpd in
the week ending September 25, down 21,000 bpd week-on-week and 12,000 bpd, or
1.2% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.058
million bpd was 13,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.
Midwest ethanol production averaged 948,000 bpd, down 14,000 bpd
week-on-week and 8,000 bpd, or 0.9% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average output at 997,000 bpd was 10,000 bpd above the same four
weeks last year.
Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 914,000 bpd, up 7,000 bpd
week-on-week and 9,000 bpd, or 1% higher than in the same week last year.
Four-week average blending demand at 910,000 bpd was 8,000 bpd above the same
four weeks last year. Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 1,000 bpd on
the week while inputs in the Midwest were up 2,000 bpd, up 4,000 bpd on the
Gulf Coast and up 1,000 bpd on the West Coast.
Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 23.865 million bbl, down
818,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.101 million bbl, or 4.8% higher than in the same
week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.293 million bbl, down
335,000 bbl week-on-week and 513,000 bbl, or 7.6% higher than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 8.885 million bbl, down 294,000
bbl week-on-week and 267,000 bbl, or 2.9% lower than in the same week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 5.147 million bbl, down
231,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.106 million bbl, or 27.4% higher than in the
same week last year.
West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.219 million bbl, up 44,000
bbl week-on-week and 194,000 bbl, or 8% lower than in the same week last year.
EIA: Gasoline Stocks Fall to Nearly 12-Year Low
U.S. gasoline inventories fell to their lowest level in nearly 12 years
during the week ended September 25, while distillate and jet fuel supplies also
posted sizable declines and commercial crude oil stocks increased, according to
Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (9/30).
Gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million bbl to 204.4 million bbl, extending
the previous week's 1.7 million bbl draw. The latest level was the lowest since
November 7, 2014, when inventories stood at 203.6 million bbl, EIA historical
data shows. Stocks were 16.3 million bbl, or 7.4%, below the 220.7 million bbl
reported during the comparable week of 2025. Gasoline imports increased to
500,000 bpd from 401,000 bpd the previous week, while exports rose to 932,000
bpd from 838,000 bpd.
Distillate fuel inventories dropped by 2.3 million bbl to 105.2 million bbl,
accelerating from the previous week's 400,000 bbl decline. Stocks were 18.4
million bbl, or 14.9%, below the 123.6 million bbl reported during the
comparable week of 2025. Distillate imports increased to 153,000 bpd from
85,000 bpd, while exports rose to 1.529 million bpd from 1.331 million bpd the
previous week.
Jet fuel inventories fell by 1.9 million bbl to 43.6 million bbl, reversing
the previous week's 100,000 bbl increase. Stocks were 700,000 bbl, or 1.6%,
below the 44.3 million bbl reported during the comparable week of 2025.
Commercial crude oil inventories increased by 900,000 bbl to 427.3 million
bbl, following the previous week's 3 million bbl build. Stocks were 10.8
million bbl, or 2.6%, above the 416.5 million bbl reported during the
comparable week of 2025. Crude oil imports fell by 179,000 bpd to 5.698 million
bpd from 5.877 million bpd, while exports increased by 289,000 bpd to 3.570
million bpd from 3.281 million bpd.
U.S. refinery utilization fell to 92.5% of operable capacity from 94% the
previous week. Crude oil inputs declined by 554,000 bpd to 16.257 million bpd
from 16.811 million bpd the previous week, EIA data showed.
EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Climb, Up 6.3% on Year
The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (9/30) total
domestic propane/propylene stocks of 109.647 million bbl in the week ending
September 25, up 1.777 million bbl week-on-week and 6.271 million bbl, or 6.1%
higher than in the same week last year.
Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.669 million bpd,
down 800,000 bpd week-on-week and 337,000 bpd, or 16.8%, lower than in the same
week last year.
Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.085
million bpd, up 321,000 bpd week-on-week and 551,000 bpd, or 103.2% higher than
in the same week last year.
EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.933 million
bpd, down 35,000 bpd week-on-week and 32,000 bpd, or 1.1% higher than in the
same week last year.
East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 8.066 million bbl, up
132,000 bbl week-on-week and 981,000 bbl, or 10.8% lower than in the same week
last year.
Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 25.642 million bbl, down
448,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.681 million bbl, or 6.2% lower than in the same
week last year.
Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 70.424 million bbl, up 1.99
million bbl week-on-week and 8.983 million bbl, or 14.6% higher than in the
same week last year.
Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended
the week at 5.515 million bbl, up 103,000 bbl week-on-week and 50,000 bbl, or
0.9% lower than in the same week last year.
EIA: EV Power Demand Growth Cools With Tax Credit Expiry
Growth in U.S. electricity consumption from light-duty electric vehicles
(EVs) slowed significantly in the first half of 2026, signaling a cooling
trajectory for fleet power demand after the expiry of federal tax incentives,
an analysis by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday
(9/30).
While light-duty electric vehicles consumed 8% more electricity during the
first six months of 2026 compared to the second half of 2025, it represents a
sharp deceleration from the double-digit six-month growth seen in recent years,
the EIA noted.
Emphasizing its point, the agency listed some of the prior growth, which
included a 24% expansion in the second half of 2023, 13% and 16% across 2024,
and 14% and 16% in 2025.
The primary catalyst behind the slower demand expansion is a direct pullback
in new vehicle sales following the end of federal financial incentives, the EIA
analysis found.
Both the New Clean Vehicle Credit and the Qualified Commercial Clean Vehicle
Credit expired on September 30, 2025.
In the first half of 2026, new electric vehicle sales dropped 19% compared
with the final six months of 2025. Because new vehicle additions drive
incremental load growth, the sales contraction immediately chilled the pace of
new power draw across the grid.
Despite the lower growth rate, cumulative power draw from the existing fleet
continues to expand. Total U.S. light-duty electric vehicle electricity use
reached nearly 14 billion kilowatthours in the first half of 2026, having more
than doubled since the first half of 2023.
Georgia Suspends Motor Fuel Tax Through October 29
Georgia suspended its motor fuel excise tax Tuesday (9/29) for 30 days,
providing temporary relief on gasoline and diesel prices as elevated fuel costs
continue to weigh on consumers and businesses.
The suspension will remain in effect through 11:59 p.m. ET on October 29 and
covers gasoline and clear diesel, along with other fuels subject to the state's
motor fuel excise tax, according to the Georgia Department of Revenue.
Fuel distributors will not be required to remit the state excise tax on
qualifying fuel sold during the suspension period, although local sales taxes
will continue to apply.
Georgia's emergency order also temporarily suspends weight restrictions for
commercial vehicles, allowing heavier loads in an effort to reduce
transportation costs and improve fuel deliveries across the state.
The latest action follows previous fuel-tax suspensions earlier this year as
state officials sought to limit the impact of higher gasoline and diesel prices
on consumers and businesses.
California Allows Early Switch to Winter Gasoline
California is allowing an early transition to winter-grade gasoline,
suspending the state's remaining summer-blend requirements as officials seek to
increase fuel availability following a sharp rise in West Coast gasoline prices
this month.
The measure, approved by the governor of California Newsom on Monday (9/28),
suspended the seasonal summer gasoline requirement for the remainder of the
season and instructed the California Air Resources Board and California
Department of Food and Agriculture to allow winter-grade gasoline to be
manufactured, imported, distributed and sold immediately.
The change brings winter-grade fuel into the California market several weeks
earlier than otherwise permitted, according to a statement from the governor's
office.
Newsom also directed the California Energy Commission, in consultation with
CARB and the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight, to begin publishing a
regular public report on gasoline and diesel spot-market activity. The state
said the reporting is intended to provide greater visibility into the number of
transactions underlying quoted spot-market prices.
Winter-grade gasoline can be produced with a higher Reid Vapor Pressure than
fuel required during the summer ozone season, giving refiners greater
flexibility in gasoline production. California's summer specifications
typically remain in place into October in parts of the state.
The action comes as West Coast wholesale gasoline prices remain sharply
elevated. PADD 5 regular gasoline rack prices averaged $4.1967 gallon in
September, up 52.29cts, or 14.2%, from $3.6738 in August, DTN data showed. The
September average was also $1.4280 gallon, or 51.6%, above the comparable
period in 2025.
PADD 5 also posted the largest month-over-month increase among the five U.S.
petroleum regions in September, while its $4.1967 gallon average remained the
highest in the country. The U.S. weighted average was $3.4462 gallon for the
month, up 11.7% from August and 63.1% from the comparable period of the
previous year.
Newsom also directed the California Energy Commission, in consultation with
CARB and the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight, to begin publishing a
regular public report on gasoline and diesel spot-market activity. The state
said the reporting is intended to provide greater visibility into the number of
transactions underlying quoted spot-market prices.
BEA Shows U.S GDP Rises 2.2%, USD Weakens
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the second quarter of
2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) third and final
estimate released on Wednesday (9/30). This was above market expectations of
1.5% growth.
The latest reading was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second
estimate of 1.5%, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer
spending, and government spending. The second-quarter expansion followed a
revised 2.5% increase in the first quarter.
Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to second-quarter
growth, while imports also increased.
Inflation remained elevated in the second quarter, although several price
measures were revised lower. The price index for gross domestic purchases
increased 5.6%, down from the previous estimate of 5.8%.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 5.0%,
revised down from 5.3%, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and
energy, rose 3.3%, compared with the previous estimate of 3.6%.
Following the GDP release, U.S. dollar index weakened against a basket of
foreign currencies, trading 0.211 points lower at 100.905, while the
front-month New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Intermediate futures
contract rose $1.91 to $91.27 bbl.
Diesel Racks Reclaim $5 Pricing; Gasoline Slide Deepens
Volatility in U.S. wholesale rack markets continued Wednesday (9/30), with
ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rising for a second consecutive day and pushing
the national average back above $5 gallon. Gasoline, meanwhile, extended its
decline for a third straight trading session.
Nationwide ULSD rack prices averaged $5.0116 gallon, up 1.49cts from the
previous trading session's $4.9967 gallon, according to DTN data.
Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $3.3476 gallon, down
3.83cts from Tuesday's $3.3860 gallon.
Oil futures also rose Wednesday and remained on track for a sharp monthly
increase as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations kept geopolitical risk in focus,
while recovering Middle East crude exports provided some counterweight to the
market.
NYMEX WTI traded near $90.66 bbl Wednesday morning, up $1.28 on the day.
Front-month New York Harbor ULSD jumped 10.21cts to around $5 gallon, while
RBOB gasoline rose 2.99cts to $3.3081 gallon.
Distillate refining margins strengthened sharply. The diesel crack climbed
$2.92 to a record $119.23 bbl, trading above $119 for the first time, while the
gasoline crack edged down $0.09 to $48.21 bbl.
The market is also looking to the Energy Information Administration's weekly
petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday,
for additional direction on domestic crude and refined-product supply.
ULSD rack prices were mixed regionally. East Coast values posted the largest
increase, rising 4.41cts to $4.9310 gallon, followed by West Coast prices,
which advanced 2.32cts to $5.3227 gallon. Midwest ULSD fell 0.67ct to $5.0151
gallon, Gulf Coast values slipped 0.29ct to $4.8325 gallon and Rocky Mountain
prices edged down 0.25ct to $5.3222 gallon.
PADD 5 held the widest ULSD premium to the national average at 31.11cts,
while PADD 3 carried the largest discount at 17.91cts.
Gasoline racks fell across all five PADDs for a third consecutive day.
Midwest values posted the largest decline, dropping 5.42cts to $3.0514 gallon,
followed by Gulf Coast prices, which fell 4.18cts to $3.1719 gallon. East Coast
gasoline declined 3.90cts to $3.1665 gallon, Rocky Mountain values fell 3.44cts
to $3.8567 gallon and West Coast prices slipped 0.84ct to $4.2550 gallon.
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