Energy Futures Rise 45% to 55% As Iran War Hits 2nd-Mo


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Analyst

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Futures of crude oil and refined products have surged 
between 45% and 55% in the two months of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, a 
period marked by the most severe disruption to maritime petroleum flows in 
modern history.

   In crude, NYMEX WTI climbed nearly 45% and ICE Brent about 50% since 
February 27, just before the breakout of the war.  Downstream, NYMEX Ultra-low 
sulfur diesel (ULSD) futures led with a 55% rally and gasoline remained not too 
far behind, with a 53% climb.  

   The price evolution reflects a market fundamentally reshaped by a war that 
shows little hopes of a quick diplomatic exit.

   NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery hovered at just under $97 bbl on Monday 
(4/27), versus the $67.02 settlement of February 27.

   ICE Brent has followed a similar trajectory, trading almost 50% above 
pre-war levels at over $108 bbl as the "Hormuz premium" -- which refers to the 
blockade of the Middle East waterway that used to be a transit point for a 
fifth of the world's petroleum supply -- remains firmly entrenched.

   Downstream, the impact of the geopolitical impasse is even more visible at 
the rack. NYMEX RBOB futures transitioned from $2.2855 gallon pre-war to 
$3.5017 gallon today, as seasonal demand spikes collide with fears over 
refinery feedstock reliability.

   NYMEX ULSD appreciated $2.6709 gallon to $4.0700, even hitting record highs 
of $4.7061 in early April.

   The U.S. Dollar Index has provided a secondary layer of pressure, currently 
trading at 98.10. While the index has softened from mid-March highs above 100, 
it remains 0.6% above its pre-war baseline of 97.5. This strengthening 
greenback creates a "double-hit" for global importers who must navigate both 
record-high fuel prices and a more expensive settlement currency.

   With U.S. President Donald Trump's cancellation of peace talks with Iran 
over the weekend -- and Israel launching fresh strikes Sunday (4/26) on 
suspected hideouts of Iranian ally Hezbollah in Lebanon -- risks to the energy 
complex remain skewed to the upside.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.