Analysis: EIA Reports Hefty Crude Stock Draw as Exports Soar


   
Karim Bastati
DTN Analyst

   VIENNA (DTN) -- U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million 
bbl to 415.4 million bbl last week, down 0.5% year-on-year and 5% below the 
five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, exports surged to their highest level in 
nearly two year, according to Energy Information Administration data released 
Wednesday (9/17).

   Commercial crude oil stockpiles fell 0.5% year-on-year and 5% below the 
five-year seasonal average, according to the same data.

   Crude oil exports in the week ending September 12 soared to 5.277 million 
bpd, the highest weekly pace since December 2023.

   The plummeting imports and soaring exports led to a net crude oil import 
situation of just 415,000 bpd, the lowest weekly figure on record.

   For comparison, net crude imports clocked in at 3.526 million bpd in the 
week ending September 5. They have averaged 2.306 million bpd over the past 
four weeks, compared to 2.555 million bpd in the same time span in 2024.

   Imports fell by 579,000 bpd on the week to 5.692 million bpd, while exports 
rocketed by 2.532 million bpd to a 21-month high 5.277 million bpd.

   Weekly import and export estimates are subject to large swings as they are 
highly dependent on the timing of customs filings and reporting by exporters. 
The EIA therefore recommends using the four-week averages to glean trends from 
the data instead.

   In the four weeks ending September 12, U.S. crude oil imports have averaged 
6.235 million bpd, down 150,000 bpd, or 2.4%, year-on-year.

   Exports, meanwhile, stood at 3.929 million bpd on the four-week average, up 
99,000 bpd, or 2.6%, year-on-year.

   The 9.3 million bbl draw to commercial crude oil inventories came despite 
refiners pulling back operations as the main driving season has passed. Net 
crude oil inputs in refineries fell by close to 400,000 bpd to 16.424 million 
bpd last week. Crude processing rates have been closely aligned with year-ago 
levels, with the four-week averages remaining unchanged year-on-year at 16.75 
million bpd.

   A closer look at the data reveals the weekly jump in exports to have mostly 
been a matter of timing. On the cumulative daily average, crude oil exports 
continued to lag 2024 levels, down 310,000 bpd, or 7.4%, year-on-year. That 
said, the Brent-WTI differential has been continuously widening since early 
July. Export volumes of crude oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast have in the past 
strongly correlated with the Brent-WTI differential on a four-to-six-week 
delay. While this correlation has softened since WTI was included in the Brent 
benchmark, the spread still hints at the relative attractiveness of light sweet 
U.S. crude oil on the global market. It also might serve as a useful early 
indicator of the future pace of U.S. crude oil exports. Export volumes of crude 
oil from the U.S. Gulf Coast have in the past strongly correlated with the 
Brent-WTI differential on a four-to-six-week delay.

   While this correlation has softened since WTI was added to the Brent 
benchmark, the spread still reflects the relative attractiveness of light sweet 
crude oil on the global market. It may also serve as a useful early indicator 
for the pace of U.S. crude exports.

    




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