Midwest CBOB Basis Extends Decline, Hits 2025 Lows


   
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) -- Chicago CBOB basis extended losses Friday (10/10) 
against November RBOB futures, hitting the lowest point of 2025, with similar 
trends seen across the rest of the Midwest pipeline delivery points, reflecting 
comparable weakness across regional pipelines.

   Chicago barrels were assessed at a 29cts discount to November RBOB futures, 
compared with a 4.50cts discount during the prior year -- a 24.50cts 
year-over-year decline and a 37.5cts swing from the summer peak of an 18.50cts 
premium on August 25, DTN Energy data showed

   "Usually, as we exit peak gasoline season, downtrends like this are 
expected. However, this year's decline has been sharper than usual," a trader 
said. "Gasoline demand was weaker than expected -- with hybrid and more 
fuel-efficient cars putting additional pressure on consumption."

   According to the Federal Highway Administration, 2025 is trending toward 
becoming the most traveled year on record for vehicle miles traveled (VMT), 
driven by a record-setting July at 296 billion miles, a 1.7% increase from July 
of the previous year. August 2025 also posted 294.2 billion miles, up 1.1% from 
the prior August.

   Despite the increase in driving across the U.S., storage levels in the 
Midwest (PADD 2) remain comfortable, reinforcing the softer gasoline demand. 
Latest EIA data for the week ending October 3 show inventories at 47.45 million 
bbl, roughly 2.4 million bbl higher than the same week the previous year, 
indicating that higher vehicle miles haven't translated into stronger fuel 
drawdowns.

   Another market source familiar with the market noted that Midwest gasoline 
prices underperformed compared to previous summers, suggesting a soft backdrop 
as the market heads into what has historically been the low-demand season from 
October through March.




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