Oil Prices Tumble 4% as OPEC Flags Q3 Glut


   
Barani Krishnan
DTN Analyst

   SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) -- Oil markets hit three-week lows Wednesday (11/12), 
driving both the global benchmarks for crude below key thresholds, following 
OPEC's forecast of a supply glut for the third quarter.

   The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery settled down $2.55 at $58.49 
bbl. ICE Brent for January delivery fell $2.52 to $62.64. The intraday low of 
$58.30 for WTI and $62.56 for Brent was the lowest since October 22.

   The 4% drop on the day was the sharpest in a month for both crude 
benchmarks, leaving WTI below the key $60 bbl mark and Brent under the $65 
threshold.

   On the refined products side, December RBOB gasoline futures settled down 
$0.0566 at $1.9554 gallon and front-month ULSD futures closed down $0.0941 at 
$2.4816 gallon.

   The Dollar Index, meanwhile, rose by 0.044 points to 99.36, adding to the 
weight on commodities priced in the U.S. currency.

   Oil markets erased advances from three prior days after the Organization of 
the Petroleum Exporting Countries projected in its November monthly report a 
500,000-bpd crude surplus for the third quarter, reversing the 400,000-bpd 
deficit it forecasted in October.

   It was a rare pivot for a producer group usually more bullish with its 
forecasts on oil than the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and the 
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

   The IEA, in its 2025 global energy outlook issued Wednesday, projected 
global oil demand will peak in 2030 under its Stated Policies Scenario, which 
includes announced government ambitions. However, its Current Policies 
Scenario, which only counts enacted laws, sees demand continue rising to 113 
million bpd by 2050.

   The EIA, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecast Brent to average $69 bbl 
in 2025, $54 bbl in the first quarter of next year and $55 bbl through 2026.




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