Correction: EIA-STEO Eyes Brent at $59.41 in 4Q25 on Inventory Build


   
Miguel E. Andujar
DTN Refined Fuels Market Reporter

   Corrects second paragraph; it reads 'upward',  it should read 'downward'.

   DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration's 
September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects the Brent crude oil price to 
fall to an average of $59.41 bbl in the fourth quarter of this year from $68 
bbl estimated in August. The 4Q25 price would be $9 bbl lower than the previous 
year and $1.36 bbl above the August STEO forecast of $58.05 bbl.

   The downward revision follows OPEC+ members' decision to increase 
production, which is expected to contribute to global oil inventory builds 
averaging more than 2 million bpd from 3Q25 through 1Q26, according to the 
EIA-STEO report. The agency notes that its forecast for 4Q25 builds is 0.8 
million bpd higher than projected last month.

   The EIA also projects U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 
nearly 13.6 million bpd in December 2025, before easing to about 13.3 million 
bpd by the end of 2026, as lower prices reduce drilling and well completion 
activity.

   On an annual basis, EIA forecasts production will average 13.4 million bpd 
in 2025 and 13.3 million bpd in 2026, both slightly higher than last month's 
outlook.

   The September STEO also revised its forecast for U.S. crude oil inventories 
higher, with 2025 ending stocks now projected at 439.5 million bbl, up from 
433.3 million bbl in last month's STEO. Inventories are expected to climb 
further to 452.4 million bbl by the end of 2026, above the prior forecast of 
447.5 million bbl.

   The EIA anticipates lower crude oil prices to contribute to a decline in 
U.S. retail gasoline prices, with the nationwide average projected at about 
$2.86 gallon in 2026, roughly 20cts gallon lower than this year. However, U.S. 
distillate inventories are forecast to end 2025 at about 114 million bbl, which 
will likely keep refining margins for diesel elevated through 2026.




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